UPDATED CUBA: Castro Corpse Watch, Updates From A Transfer Of Power

Raul And His Junta

Duncan Campbell at The Guardian has an interesting article on the rumor mill inside Havana about what happens after Castro, and a profile of Raul, who might endorse a "Chinese model" of economic reforms if left in control of the Island, and whose daughter has become a hero to transvestites in the Island. Diario Las Americas has this EFE article which claims that Raul Castro, will be "cloaked" by an inner core of three Partido Comunista Cubano, Central Committee members, Vice President Carlos Lage - seen as the architect of the now-abandoned market-based reforms of the 90's, Felipe Perez Roque the young, dumb and dogmatic Foreign Minister, and the ever-present President of the "Congress", Ricardo Alarcon.

The regime's succession plan apparently has identified three key areas it wants tightly controlled: energy, education and health. Funds will be doled out by a triunvirate composed of Lage, the president of the Bank of Cuba, Francisco Soberon and Perez Roque. Lage will take care of energy policy personallly. Education will be under PCC bureau members Ramón Machado Ventura and Esteban Lazo Hernández.

The Old Man And The Belly
Here are the contents of the letter sent to the press by the Castro regime. According to this Miami Herald story. The whole intestinal bleeding operation seems suspect. One Dr. thinks it might be for colon cancer. I suspect it might be the big C. myself, because of the prolonged absences of the dictator before his trip. Acting as a proxy foreign ministry, the Venezuelan government says Castro is doing better.



Hey Ho, The Witch Is Dead
Miami residents went nuts last night, and seem pretty optimistic.

Que Pasa?
In a top-down personalitstic regime like this one, based on loyalty to one person, even an extended illness causes a leadership vacuum, jockeying for power at the very top, a loss of the grip of power of the whole structure, and instability at the bottom. Basically, there is an opening. Brezhnev's continued senility set Kremlin factions into war, with Andropov and his protege Gorbachev at first emerging victorious. Close to Cuba, when Somoza had his heart attack in late 1977 it set off the chain of events that caused him to flee from power two years later.

Raul is no Fidel, things could get out hand pretty quickly soon. One little mistake on the regime's part and that could be it. Years of frustration can come pouring out, much like they did in Romania.