Sunday, August 06, 2006

CUBA: Alvaro Vargas Llosa On Cuba's Transition


Image: La Prensa/AFP
Fidel Done
According to Vargas Llosa the die is cast. "Whatever happens next, this will not be Fidel Castro's dictatorship." He does not think that there will be a Chinese model succession such as that of Mao to Deng, the Polish style succession of Jarulezci passing power to solidarity, or the gradual diminution by Gorbachev.

Option 1
This leaves two possible transitions. One would be "Fidelismo'' without Fidel. In other words, a military dictatorship under Raul Castro -- who at 75 is frail and suffers from cirrhosis due to alcoholism -- until he passes away or becomes incapacitated himself, at which time the real transition process would begin.


Option2
The other, more likely, scenario is a power struggle among various factions. Cuban General Jose Quevedo recently told a group of Cubans in Madrid that the degree of personal control by Fidel Castro has been such that no one with any kind of following has emerged these past few years in the armed forces or the Communist Party.