La Palin Resigns

Sarah Palin just announced she is resigning as governor of Alaska, running for President in 2012?


Todd S. Purdum’s excellent Vanity Fair piece , It Came from Wasilla,, detailing La Palin's doings in Alaska and in the McCain campaign. that has Democrats laughing, Republicans fighting among themselves, and Independents glad that one of the most brainless of American politicians in recent memory is not a heartbeat away from the presidency.

She apparently didn’t like preparing for debates back then either. “In the campaign for governor, they’re prepping her for debate,” Curtis Smith’s former business partner, Jim Lottsfeldt, told me recently in Anchorage, “and Curtis says, ‘The debate prep’s going horribly. Every time we try to help her with an answer, she just gets mad.’” (Smith himself says, “Unfortunately, I don’t recall having that exact conversation with Mr. Lottsfeldt, nor do I recall my experience, including debate prep, with Governor Palin in the light he portrayed.”) But Palin’s lack of knowledge turned out not to hurt her. Andrew Halcro later remembered that he and Palin once compared notes about their many encounters, and she said, “Andrew, I watch you at these debates with no notes, no papers, and yet when asked questions, you spout off facts, figures, and policies, and I’m amazed. But then I look out into the audience and I ask myself, Does any of this really matter?”

MILLER: End Of The Tony George Era

Tony George's reign at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is over after leaving the sport divided after forming the IRL and locking out CART in 96.
Robin Miller tells it right:
MILLER: End Of The Tony George Era

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Alexis Arguello, Nicaraguan 3-Time World Boxing Champ Dead

DAMN, this is a real bummer. I grew up watching Alexis' fights. "El Flaco Explosivo" was a national hero in Nicaragua and the whole country would shut down when he fought. Before the era of a bewildering number of "world championships" boxing had two sanctioning bodies which crowned a world champion for each weight class. Alexis won 3 separate titles. a major feat.

Alexis Arguello dies.....from ESPN

MANAGUA, Nicaragua -- Alexis Arguello, who fought in one of boxing's most classic brawls and reigned supreme at 130 pounds, was found dead at his home early Wednesday.

Coroners were conducting an autopsy to determine the cause of death. Sandanista Party's Radio Ya and other local media were reporting it appeared to be a suicide.

[+] EnlargeAlexis Arguello
Getty ImagesAlexis Arguello was found dead Wednesday at 57. He is pictured in June 1981 after beating Jim Watt to win the WBC lightweight title.

The La Prensa newspaper reported that Arguello -- elected mayor of Nicaragua's capital last year -- was found with a gunshot wound to the chest.

The 57-year-old Arguello retired in 1995 with a record of 82-8 and 65 knockouts and was a champion in three weight divisions. He was perhaps best known for two thrilling battles with Aaron Pryor and fights with Ray Mancini, Bobby Chacon and Ruben Olivares.

"I'm kind of in a daze right now," Pryor told The Associated Press. "Those were great fights we had. This was a great champion."

Nicknamed "The Explosive Thin Man," Arguello was inducted in 1992 into the International Boxing Hall of Fame, where flags were flying at half-staff in his honor Wednesday.

Hundreds of people lined up to say goodbye to Arguello Wednesday night at a memorial service at the Palace of Culture in the capital of Nicaragua.

pic/ ESPN/Getty

Bolivia: Coca Es Mostly Cocaina.....Cocaine Production Up In Bolivia & Peru Down in Colombia

According to Reuters

LIMA (Reuters) - Cocaine production is growing fastest in Bolivia while Peru is on its way to matching output from Colombia, the top global producer of the drug, U.N. officials said on Friday.

Coca plant cultivation in Bolivia, which expelled U.S. anti-drug agents last year after accusing them of meddling in domestic affairs, grew 6 percent in 2008, according to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime's annual study of Andean nations.

Estimated cocaine production rose 9 percent to 113 metric tons in the impoverished South American nation.

This is what happens when you leave the fox in charge of the henhouse. The reality that Evo-pologists avoid or ignore is that Morales's main base of support is composed of people who grow coca that is almost exclusively used to make cocaine. They want to be able to avoid annoyances like the DEA so they can grow coca freely so they can sell it or make their own coca paste. So now it is easier to do such things as bribe cops/military people without the "gringos" there, and there is less incentive to do anything about it.

EDIT

Meanwhile, the UN also found that production also increased in Peru, part which can be attributed to neo-Sendero Luminoso types. Meanwhile growing of coca and production of cocaine actually fell in Colombia. Part of this might have to do with successes against the FARC, who both directly control some of the production and export as well as critical smuggling routes. And also moving against top Paramilitary leaders, who often acted with semi-sanction from officials because they fought the FARC. Critical in the Colombian conflict(s) and efforts against traffickers is territory. The more space in control or disputed by non-governmental armed bands, the more space that could be used to grow and produce cocaine. In a larger sense the conflicts with the guerillas also acted as a buffer against government actions against all parties dealing cocaine. Taking those players out of the equation allowed both direct erradication - as well as for traditional law enforcement to work against drug dealer.

Honduras Flies The Coup UPDATED

Poor Zelaya received an old-fashioned military coup d' etat, subject to wide condemnation. And the man is hardly a Chavez/Evo, at the very worst a very mild-wannabee. More to the point he is the Constitutional, freely-elected President of the Republic of Honduras, whose term has not ended. Military leaders arresting him and sending him to exile is just plain simply a coup d' etat. Too old-school and scary.

Funny that Cuba - a one-party totalitarian government for 50 yrs is protesting very loudly. As is Chavez who celebrates his own failed (and bloody)coup attempt in 1992 to this day. Ditto for Evo Morales who agitated and conspired actively to bring down two Constitutional Presidents in Bolivia, and who pretty much ignores parliamentary and legal niceties.

El mandatario venezolano, Hugo Chávez, quien al igual que Cuba venía advirtiendo sobre la posibilidad de un golpe de Estado en el país centroamericano desde hace días, fue uno de los primeros en salir en defensa de Zelaya. Chávez anunció una ´batalla continental´ a favor de la restitución de su homólogo.

En ese sentido, los medios de comunicación reportaron el desarrollo de una reunión extraordinaria de presidentes de la Alba en Managua, que empezó anoche con la presencia de Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua y Cuba, y a la que hoy se sumará Bolivia.

EDIT

President Obama made the right moves and set a good tone:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Dealing with the first Latin American crisis of his presidency, Barack Obama sought a swift, clear response that would not be interpreted as U.S. interventionism in a region that loathes it.

So he condemned a coup in Honduras by turning to the most reliable of friends: democracy.

"We stand on the side of democracy, sovereignty and self-determination," Obama said when asked Monday about the forced exile of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, a takeover that has drawn international criticism and unnerved a part of the world that has worked to shed itself of strong-arm tactics.

The point could not be lost. Obama mentioned some version of the word democracy eight times. He even wound up referring to George Washington.

The response put Obama with much of the world as Honduras and its newly appointed leader, Roberto Micheletti, quickly found themselves isolated. Obama left sticky underlying issues in Honduras for its people to decide, but pledged that the U.S. would work with international bodies on a peaceful solution.

As the NYT reports countries "ideologically" divided, as diverse as Bolivia and Colombia have condemned the coup. Specially worth noting is the reactions of
Argentina, Brazil and Chile, the 70's "gorilla" countries.
Boz has four posts and analysis here, 2, 3, 4.

Here is the OAS declaration which Boz cites:

1. To condemn vehemently the coup d’état staged this morning against the constitutionally-established Government of Honduras, and the arbitrary detention and expulsion from the country of the constitutional president José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, which has produced an unconstitutional alteration of the democratic order.

2. To demand the immediate, safe and unconditional return of President José Manuel Zelaya Rosales to his constitutional functions.

3. To declare that no government arising from this unconstitutional interruption will be recognized.

Bolivia Stalls On Negotiating With Obama Administration Over Trade Preferences

Latest news from Bolivia's Foreign Ministry is that it has "postponed" sending a delegation to Washington DC to negotiate the possibility of Bolivia renewing trade preferences under the Andean Trade Preferences act. Suspended by the Bush admninistration in part due to Morales expulsion of the US ambassador and the DEA, the door had opened under Obama.

The program started in 1992 and took off slowly before picking up after 2002. In 2006 and 2007 exports to the US were 172.1 million and 153.3 million. Textiles were a big part. It is a very large percentage of Bolivia's total manufacturing exports. One estimate is that it produces 26,132 jobs directly and 17,541 indirect jobs for a total of 43,670.



Why this isn't a priority for Morales' government? Could be ideological disdain both for the private sector actors and the US. More to the point, loudly trumpeting Chavez' ALBA..as well as punishing business owners opposed to his rule. Or also could be that there is one group of private sector exporters and producers that Morales is heeding. The ones who don't want the DEA poking in their business anymore.

Bolivia - No More High Court

Bolivia's Constitutional Court basically ceased to exist as the last Judge has resigned. The Court, which has jurisidiction to be the ultimate arbitrer regarding the Constitutionality of laws, has been esentially dead the last couple of years.

An undereported story internationally, is how Evo Morales' government has waged a war on the highest two Courts in the land, the Supreme Court and this Court. The executive, has brought the equivalent of sanction and/or impeachment proceedings in the legislature against individual Judge, who have resigned. For the past couple of years that has meant a failure to get a quorum of judges to hear issues that have come up over the changes occuring in society.

Bolivia - Washington Consensus vs. Caracas Consensus -

Bolivia we are told was a battleground for the Washington Consensus, a poster-child for the "failure of neo-liberalism," of "popular resistance to the International Monetary Fund." This was illustrated by such episodes as the Water Wars in Cochabamba and the Gas War that brought down Sanchez De Lozada, and ultimately the surprise rise to power of Evo Morales. In this narrative it is mainly about resources, resistance to economic measures imposed from abroad that allowed multinationals to come in and extract natural resources to the detriment of Bolivia's poor.

Reality of course is much more complicated. The rise to Evo and the failure of the traditional political class, also owes a lot to the ethnic and regional cleavages in Bolivian society, and the long history of instability and self-destruction in Bolivian politics. Among other (numerous) factors you can also throw in the historical exclusion of a large part of the population, regional economic crisis, US drug policy,etc, etc.

But bring it back to economics, because that is what we were told this was about. If the evil IMF, the neo-liberals, and the multinationals were so bad, what was the alternative?
However many dumb things the IMF suggested (or forced) the country to do, the truth is the budget did become balanced, and the foreign debt was lowered. This was forecast by the Bolivian Government and the IMF when they reached a Stand-by deal in 2002. Privatizations of airlines, railroads, telcom companies wiped out hundreds of millions of dollars in obligations the Bolivian government carried. And due to the opening up of the oil and gas sector per the Washington Consensus/IMF/Neo-lib recommendations resulted in nearly 4 billion dollars in investment. Up to the 1990's Bolivia produced little natural gas, afterwards it held the 2nd gas reserves in the continent, filling 50 + percent of Sao Paulo's needs. Simply put, the gas industry exists because of foreign investment.

And Evo Morales' policies? Under the tutelage of loudmouth Hugo Chavez - who acts as a cheerleader and enabler of Morales worst instincts. Destroying transparency in government. The childish nationalizations, that resulted in massive mismanagement, corruption, and even over-payments to transnationals. Bolivia going from being the "gas hub" of South America, to the "black hole" of energy policy in the Continent as one analyst put it. So destructive and unreliable has Morales government become that Bolivia's gas clients like Argentina and Brazil have ponied up billions of dollars for re-gasification facilities, preffering to pay more to bring in gas from Trinidad and Tobago and eventually Africa. Cuba now has a more favorable environment for foreign oil and gas company than Bolivia, and Peru is drawing in billions in investments with much less gas.

While this has gone on, the same voices that constantly whined about the IMF, about the World Bank, about Goni, about Bechtel, are awfully silent. Nothing about Morales' amazingly inept and failed policies. The narrative shifts, it is now about the excluded indigenous majority trying to "change" the country under assault from the "light-skinned" elites in the east. Noting resistance to the "indigenous" Constitution - while failing to note how it crudely imposes a statist-centralized government-run economy, and pretty much bans foreign investment. Basic stupidity that goes far beyond, trying to force a bankrupt government to balance its budget. Whatever damage the "Washington Consensus" did, the Caracas Consensus is a real loser.

Classic Salsa - Hector Lavoe y Willie Colon - No Me Llores Mas

YouTube rocks!......Hector Lavoe and Willie Colon doing "No Me Llores Mas" for Panamanian TV. Classic tune sounds great.

FORMULA ONE STUNNER - BREAKAWAY SERIES FORMED

its only starting with this Formula One stunner. It looks like the manufacturers are going thru with a breakaway series, and not cutting a deal with Max Mosely and tghe FIA.

Instant comparisons to US Open Wheel split in mid-90's can be misleading; Ferrari as one writer wrote is the Man-U of motorsports with a worldwide passionate fanbase. Penske not showing up at Indy in 96 is nowhere near the effect of the Scuderia not contesting the World Championship. But, what is relevant from that whole sordid story is the fact that splitting the sport dilutes the product in general. And the politics and nasty headlines take away from the racing and end up angering fans

Los Amigos Invisibles Commercial Gets Major US Media Love

Los Amigos Invisibles the wacky Venezuelans whose latin-house-funk-disco fusion is great on disc and absolutely rocking live, get shown major love from major US media. Critic James Reed at the Boston Globe gives a great review to their latest album "Commercial".

Eleven years since they appeared on the cover of their debut as poolside dudes gawking at a foxy lady in a bikini, the good-time guys in Los Amigos Invisibles are still insatiable party animals. The Venezuelan band has long been a favorite live act for people who normally don't even like Latin music; the songs are exuberant and vivacious enough to transcend language. But in the studio, Los Amigos Invisibles had been treading water since 2000's "Arepa 3000," turning out albums that locked into the same shopworn groove. It's a relief, then, to hear fresh ideas and rhythms on "Commercial," the band's newest cocktail of disco, funk, rock, and space-age lounge. While the album doesn't exactly break new ground, the songs at least amount to a summer soundtrack perfect for days at the beach, nights on the dance floor. Following a rave-up introduction that falsely suggests the album will rocket into orbit, "Mentiras" puts the band in funkafied party mode right away. "In Luv With U," sung in English, is cute if dispensable. "Viviré Para Ti," a love song, glides along to a breezy beat courtesy of featherweight vocals from Mexican singer-songwriter Natalia Lafourcade. Like the cream of Los Amigos Invisibles' music, it hits the sweet spot between the heart and the hips. (Out tomorrow)

JAMES REED

Great stuff. Nice to see that Los Amigos are getting (belated and much deserved)recognition - much as another favorite Los Aterciopelados is. Hopefully this will also translate into airplay from US Spanish-language media. In part due to the Univision cartels' self-interest in promoting its own acts and the self-contented attitude of other media, they tend to be behind the curve on these things. Los Amigos latest tracks and the album has been a major download success on I-tunes, hopefully this will open them up to the air and videoplay they deserve here in the US.


New song Mentiras from the album

A tres años de la “nacionalización”

A tres años de la “nacionalización” (Editorial)
Martes, 12 Mayo 2009
2009-05-12 07:58:56 Editorial.
Hace ya casi un par de semanas se conmemoró el tercer aniversario de la “nacionalización” de los hidrocarburos, “acontecimiento histórico” —como fue calificado en su momento— que ahora ya nadie quiere recordar. No hubo actos oficiales, ni discursos, ni festejos. Muy atrás quedaron los días cuando oficialistas y opositores se disputaban el mérito de haber “recuperado” la principal riqueza del país................Nadie sabe qué hacer para disimular algo que ya es inocultable: la “nacionalización” fue un monumental fracaso. Nada de lo que alguien pueda sentirse orgulloso.

Las consecuencias económicas negativas de tal medida son enormes. La exploración sigue paralizada, la producción de gas y petróleo no deja de caer. Ya no se perforan nuevos pozos que puedan compensar el paulatino agotamiento de los existentes, en los que siquiera se hace el mantenimiento correspondiente.

HidrocarburosBolivia.com

Petrobras nuestro aliado que no fue

Editorial: Petrobras nuestro aliado que no fue
Lunes, 11 Mayo 2009
2009-05-11 07:53:23 Según los resultados de una encuesta recientemente realizada por el Reputation Institute (RI), empresa privada de consultoría y encuesta de mercado con sede en Nueva York, la empresa brasileña Petrobras figura en el cuarto lugar entre las 200 empresas más respetadas del mundo.......pudiendo haber hecho de Petrobras una aliada estratégica de Bolivia, lo que hubiera significado que todas sus cualidades se pongan al servicio de un plan conjunto de aprovechamiento de tan importantes recursos, optamos por que su lugar sea ocupado por quienes están destruyendo YFPB.
.

HidrocarburosBolivia.com

Bolivia: Evo Shows Genius Part - XIV "am a Marxist-Leninist"

Evo Morales has made some fairly outrageous comments in his presidency, which somehow don't get much attention from many international media too caught up in the whole "first-indigenous" president spin.

How bizarre, how bizarre....

Recently he has been on a roll: He blamed a "CIA plot", namely one functionary for the corruption in YPFB which in fact was done by his #2 man facilitated largely by Evo's own measures. In addition he called a Mexican-American US embassy functionary a "Mexican" in the "pay of the CIA". He has called for the "ending of capitalism". Not to mention his performance at the summit of the Americas where he said he was an assasins target and complained Obama wasn't as compliant in condemning the "plot". Said plot based on the utterings of some eccentric Bolivian-Hungarian his cops killed in Santa Cruz, where he was in contact with a few fringe Crucenos who charged him about a grand for antique weapons.

May Day - How Apropriate

it was precisely at the pre-summit of ALBA where Evo made declarations that he subsequently repeated to an Argentine Newspaper.

I can't understand that because of ideological reasons they expell someone from the OAS. I am also a marxist-leninist and what are they going to expel me?"

He also said that the principles of marxism are part of the struggle of the indigenous movement for liberation, equality and dignity"

Interesting. 20 years after the collapse of communism Evo says he is a Marxist-Leninist.

Not only a Marxist which is bad enough. You can argue that original Marxism (as in Marx himself)had humanist, rational, and democratic leanings and stood for progress. But key elements of Marxism have led interpreters to adopt anti-democratic and utopian positions. Particularly damaging is a Marxian socialistic viewpoint untethered to liberal democratic concepts of government, personal freedom and institutionality. The vision of a world headed towards inevitable revolution, societies in a constant dynamic of class struggle, and a mechanistic view of the economy as an input-output machine have caused much real damage.

But its the Marxist-Leninist vision that Evo allegedly subscribes to that is dangerous to the core. Lenin's ruthless logic (endorsed by Troskty) wrote out any "reformist" and democratic elements from its conception of socialism. Instead it became about an infallible party (la vanguardia), armed with scientific certainty of its cause, seeking to achieve power at all costs, destroying its class enemies in the process. Its practical application was totalitarian, as evil a force as any during the last century.

Reality is Bolivia, however fragile, is a democracy not a peoples republic. Evo is a constitutional president elected by a majority vote in a free election. His party of disparate personalities is hardly the Leninist mass party with top down revolutionary control that for example the Sandinistas were in the 80s.


But there is a lot of the Leninist in the way Evo and the core MAS group around the government wield their mandate. Starting with the unrelenting war of words and actions against the opposition, the Eastern business and landowning class, which is much more one-sided than what foreign correspondents let on. The absolute arrogance and certainty of the executive in the way it directs policies almost without concern for the facts. Further, the way it has conducted a scorched earth policy against institutions like the supreme court and superintendencies, almost paraphrasing the exact words of contempt that Marxist-Leninist used in the past (i.e. "bourgeois-democratic") And of course, the way it has conducted its foreign policy, literally costing the country hundreds of millions of dollars in order to further what is basically a Cold War anti-US policy sans the USSR.

Oppenheimer on the "post crisis world", Latin America, and Capitalism

Andres Oppenheimer centers on a couple of key issues in his last column....Post-economic crisis world will be harder for Latin America

He talks about the "conventional wisdom" among some in the "developing world" that the world will be less capitalist, and less Washington-centered, once the economic crisis is over." He cites the more exreme holders of this position, notably Chavez who at the ALBA meeting before the Trinidad Summit held that the "recent U.S. moves toward greater state regulation of the economy proves that capitalism is on its way out." Not to mention the kind of statements Evo has been making about the "end of capitalism".

Oppenheimer makes the point that "The post-crisis world will be less U.S.-centered, but not necessarily less capitalist." In other words the same kind of market-centered rules on production and exports will apply whether the ultimate consumer is in the US, Europe or China. If anything it will be more competitive.

He cites Harvard Economic Professor Enrique Hausman

'Disciplined, market-friendly countries like Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay will recover,''......``Neo-populist countries with high taxes on exports and no access to credit markets, like Argentina, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela, will do poorly.''

It seems reasonable to conclude that countries that adopted and institutionalized many of the key tenets of the so-called and much-maligned "Washington Consensus" (macroeconomic stability, fiscal responsibility, export-oriented policies), will be in better shape to confront the crisis than those that adopted he "Caracas Consensus" - which in the end has left places like Venezuela even more vulnerable to outside crisis. A point that rarely is made by even centrist pundits and academics.

Sure, populist leaders are right in stating there will be a U.S. shift toward greater state regulation to prevent financial bubbles. But they forgot that it was precisely this financial bubble that caused the artificial world expansion that allowed their countries to grow rapidly without becoming more competitive.

Populism is the offspring of good times. Now that the pie has shrunk for everybody, Latin American countries will need to become more competitive in a more frugal world.

Bingo, again, a point that is left out of many discussions of the "financial bubble" n- at least when it comes to its international effects. Fact is the "bubble" not only enriched Wall Street financiers and gave a financial, boost to homeowners in the US. It accelerated growth in China and India among other places and placed an enormous demand on the resources of Latin American countries. In many ways it pulled 100's of millions of people out of poverty worldwide - as well as enabled irresponsibility in many quarters whether Wall Street or Caracas. But those countries that used the "boom" intelligently to "crisis-proof" themselves will be the ones that best weather the bad times ahead.

Existe YPFB

¿Existe YPFB?
Jueves, 09 Abril 2009
2009-04-09 07:59:01 Carlos Miranda Pacheco* YPFB nunca dejó de existir, en enero del 2006 este gobierno encontró un YPFB reducido a un poco más de doscientos empleados dedicados a la...

HidrocarburosBolivia.com

Puedes contar conmigo - Mago de Oz -

Gettin' Medieval....(or Rennaisance Fair)

Some things defy explanation....including Spanish folk-metal-band Mago de Oz, with their latest track Puedes contar conmigo, the theme to a Spanish TV show, Aguila Roja. Missing: dancing dwarves in period costumes. enjoy:

Why Bolivia's Murder-Bribery Scandal Matters

It reads like a crime thriller: an oil company executive robbed and shot to death while carrying 450,000 dollars in cash to the house of the brother-in-law of an influential political figure. More than a month after the fact, the murder-bribery scandal involving Evo Morales former #2, Santos Ramirez continues to rivet Bolivians as more and more details come out about the widespread corruption and inefficiency not only in the oil company but in the entire Bolivia state. It poses the strongest challenge faced by the Morales government, and its future plans.

This crisis raises key questions about Bolivia's political and economic future. In some ways these issues are as important as the discussions on autonomy. It matters and will continue to matter for a long time for some of the following reasons:


Evo's Plans:Evo has said that natural resources are the "fundamental base of the countries development". He is in power in large part because of his calls for nationalization of the industry. Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales de Bolivia YPFB, the national oil and gas company. which (in theory) manages the hydrocarbon production which is at the heart of these plans. The government is going to appropriate a one billion dollar loan from the Central Bank this year to "strengthen" the company.


MAS Plans: YFBP is the building block in MAS conception of a centralized, state-directed economy, set out in the party's rhetoric, its 06 economic plan, countless decrees and laws, and meant to be enshrined in the approved Constitution. Many Bolivian experts see this as a return to the statist approach of the nationalist-military period that started in 1952 and ended in 1985 with the collapse of the economy.

Close to Evo: Santos Ramirez co-founded MAS with Evo, led the senatorial MAS block, helping draft and push through both the oil and gas nationalization and the new constitution. Ramirez got married recently, Evo was best man. He was seen as a potential VP candidate.

MAS Scandal - It is the biggest scandal in the oil industry in Bolivian history: Corruption at YPFB is nothing new - every government since the 50's used it as a piggy bank. Never has there been a case this big, involving the chief executive caught in flagranti. It is also the largest in scope, because revelations continue to come out involving all levels of the company starting with wrongdoing and incompetence at management to lower level employees kicking back portions of their salaries to the ruling party. In addition, the scandal is touching key government ministeries and regulatory agencies involved in the fiasco, as well as those where similar shenanigans are coming to light.


MAS big - For comparison: another soap opera in neighboring Peru, a scandal involving politicians and a VP of the national oil company rigging the bidding to favor a Norwegian company, caused the sacking of ministers, the entire cabinet resigning, protests in the streets and Garcia's popularity plummeting further. While that scandal showed the vulnerability of the the bidding process, and involved powerful figures in and around the government, Bolivia's scandal directly involves the CEO of the national oil company, one of Evo's 4 or 5 major collaborators, with his hands directly in the pot. Call it a blatant example of corruption 101- showing a total lack of transparency in the company and absolute impunity.

Evo's fault: While not directly linked to any ill-gotten gains, he pretty much put his "compadre" in a position where ripping off the state was easy as taking candy from a baby.. Evo signed A series of decrees granting the higher ups at YPFB authority to award no-bid contracts to outside suppliers, directly, and further giving the president of the company (Santos) the right to directly authorize payments without approval of the board, as well as directing that funds be available in the state bank for immediate disbursal. That is why Santos alone was able to sign a contract to build a 86 million dollar plant with a front company incorporated only 3 days before. Company being able to draw from a government bank without any proof of work done, and literally being able to withdraw nearly half a million dollars in cash. ,

As Carlos Miranda the Bolivian hydrocarbon industry expert put it, this set of measures - combined with the nationalization decree - did away with "20 years of contracting experience" set out in the previous hydrocarbons law, which required open and international calls for bids and approval at least by the board of directors of the company. Miranda was writing last October when he said that this new regime could lead to "graver" situations than the (then) unfolding Peruvian case. This results from the MAS governments attempts to erase the past, by deligitimizing institutions and laws from prior governments. Evo's government readily breaks existing laws -Evo himself admitted to doing. These laws are "neo-liberal" in his conception, tainted and therefore illegitimate.



MAS Incompetents: From the beginning of the Morales administration YPFB was staffed by political hacks, cronies and family of MAS bigshots. Santos Ramirez notched it up when he came in, adding almost 500 people to the 1000 person roster. "Administrators" replaced oil and gas professionals and technical people, at all levels of what is an organization dedicated to exploring, extracting, and commercializing hydrocarbons. To make matters worse, in the supposedly "autonomous" company, salaries offered were at first lowered making it uncompetitive with the regional standards. And people with experience in multi-nationals and previous governments were dissuaded and/or barred from working there. The result a brain drain of Bolivian hydrocarbons talent to places like the gas fields of Peru.

Even MAS Incompetents: Directing this lunacy is Evo and the handful of ideologues who are clueless. The MAS/officialist leadership has had SIX different presidents and five hydrocarbons ministers in only three years. The company once required its president to have 10 years of executive experience at a high level in the hydrocarbons industry. Now it seems enough to have a college education. Santos (prez #5), was a rural schoolteacher and lawyer. The current president Carlos Villegas - who at least is an economist - was most famous for authoring angry polemics against the multinationals using suspect numbers. He is also one of the main geniuses behind the disastrous nationalization process, and specifically authored decrees barring transnationals from the domestic hydrocarbons industry. In other words he now has to deal with the shortages and lack of investment caused by his own stupid advice. Not to mention the corruption that went on under his own watch as Minister of Hydrocarbons - when the actual contract in question was signed. Morales government is so low on qualified people it has to recycle people like Villegas to try to set the house in order. In Peru by comparison, everyone connected with the scandal was fired.

NO MAS Investment: Evo's war against multi-nationals, including Brazil's state company Petrobras has meant a significant drop in investments, causing production to level off the last couple of years, even at a time when demand in the continent was high,. That has the practical effect of making it hard to supply the internal market when demand grew, since associated products like diesel and keresone depend on gas production - and on infraestructure investments. Evo has placed YPFB in control of the entire cycle of production and commercialization internally, excluding the multinationals from the downstream side of the business . In the end that explains why there are chronic shortages of products like cooking gas, diesel, and gasoline in Bolivia a country that has been self-sufficient in the past.

MAS Irrationality and Improvisation: As a result of both the improvisation, ideological silliness and incompetence YPFB is a mess. Its mistakes are masked by the record earnings that are largely the result of sectorial policies of the governments Evo rails against. It lacks transparency, no more public information available on budgeting and contracting - it took a murder to publicize this crooked contract. Meanwhile the company seems to be acting on government whims, It is spending millions on building gas stations. Meanwhile, only four wells were drilled last year, in comparison to the 65 drilled annually at the beginning of the decade. Peru in contrast drilled 153 last year, with smaller gas reserves. All the while Evo continues feuding with multinationals, and presses forward with constitutional provisions that seem to doom international investors in the sector.

MAS Refounding: The chaos and corruption scandal is in big part a result of an ideological attitude that puts politics above practicality. This ideological obsession which attempts to re-impose the heavily statist economy and centralize government that operated in Bolivia for years. Attempting to recreate this model is silly in light of the obvious evidenceof its failure worldwide. Not to mention the fact that its spectacular collapse in Bolivia led to world-record inflation. Evo's schemes in ypfb show that a really bad idea, executed with incompetence is even worse. Simple reality shows that Bolivia needs foreign investment and expertise to properly manage its natural resources. And that continuing on this path is disastrous. It also resurects the demons of corruption and impunity that proliferated in Latin American countries with centralist governments whose economies were anchored by large state-run enterprises, before the type of reforms that made possible world-class companies like Petrobras.

The government still barely concedes mistakes in 3 years of mis-management . While they now will bring in experts from Norway, Holland, and Canada and GASP! the World Bank, Evo has so far refused to announce any change of direction, even reaffirming that the billion dollar loan will go ahead. They prefer to make big media productions of such events as a drilling rig arriving from Venezuela. Failing to note later that said drill has been sitting idle for months, while PDVSA is asking for money for rental. And underneath all the revolutionary bla, bla, bla, the government has only unlocked the oil company making it vulnerable to the same old school corruption that plagued Bolivia for years. And again it says something that it took a murder to uncover it.

Lula Smacks Down Evo Part 2 - Evo's Moods

This week Lula again took shots at Evo Morales while discussing Brazil's plans to become self-sufficient in natural gas. While he did clarify again that Brazil "will continue buying gas from Bolivia, we have a contract until 2019" he continued with this statement:

"It is important that the world knows that we will have gas, that we have other ways. We will not be dependent on anyone's good mood,

To make sure everyone understood whose "mood" he was talking about he further said:

At the peak of our crisis with Bolivia when there were only difficulties, when Evo had a lot of complaints against Petrobras and Petrobras had complaints about Evo, when there indications that we might or might not have gas, we had a meeting of the National Council of Energy Policy..[it was there the government decided] to make it a priority to find gas, because we can not have an important energy matrix dependent on another country.

En el auge de nuestra crisis con Bolivia, cuando sólo había dificultades, cuando Evo tenía muchas quejas de Petrobras y Petrobras tenía quejas de Evo, cuando había indicaciones de que podríamos tener o no tener gas, hicimos una reunión del Consejo Nacional de Política Energética........ [Fue allí que el Gobierno decidió] “transformar en prioridad, encontrar gas, porque no podemos tener una matriz energética importante dependiente de otro país

Lula Smacks Down Evo

At an event inagurating a natural gas processing plant, Lula had this to say about Evo Morales and Bolivia as a natural gas supplier

I am very happy. If Petrobras continues on this path, there will be a day when I will call Evo Morales "Dear Evo, now we wil leave you in peace to sell gas to whoever you want to, Brazil doesn't need any more. we are self-sufficient" Its logical that strategically Brazil will continue buying, because for our own growth we have no interest in a poor neighbor. We need to grow......in our relation..its important that people understand, that when we fight less, we produce more..."

“Hoy estoy acá feliz de la vida. Si Petrobras continúa en el recorrido en el que está, va a llegar un día en que voy a poder decir a Evo Morales: ‘Evo querido, ahora nosotros te dejamos en libertad para vender el gas a quien quieras. Brasil no precisa más. Somos autosuficientes. Es lógico que estratégicamente Brasil va a continuar comprando, porque para nuestro crecimiento no nos interesa tener un vecino pobre. Tenemos que crecer. Pero para que tengas una dimensión de la relación entre nuestros países, voy a decir, y es importante que la gente comprenda, que cuanto menos peleamos, más producimos’”.

Not The First Time
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Last February Lula in a very significant speech in front of the Argentine Congress....also had this to say in reference to Bolivia's request for a voluntary reduction in gas volumes in order to comply with Argentina's requests...

We don't have gas, those who do don't exploit it as they should.

El presidente Lula da Silva, que concurrió a la cita con unos días de anticipación, describió perfectamente la situación con la siguiente frase en su intervención ante el Congreso argentino: ´No tenemos el gas... Algunos que lo tienen no lo explotan como deberían´.

Et Tu Lula?


So what gives? Isn't Lula Evo's ideologically-attuned buddy? In public Lula is all smiles with Evo, praising him to high heaven. But Lula's policy is Brazil's long-term strategic interest in achieving self-sufficiency in hydrocarbons. And through Petrobras they are laying down billions in investments - at home and abroad. Specifically it is investing in natural gas exploration and production to achieve self-sufficiency. Lula's government has just passed a new natural gas legislation, strengthening the regulatory framework and ending Petrobras monopoly to permit competition both in downstream and upstream.

Bolivia was once considered a long-term supplier of natural gas and strategic partner of Brazil. At the government of Brazil's heavy prodding, Petrobras invested heavily in developing Bolivia's gas reserves and laying the pipeline to Sao Paulo. Bolivia now supplies 50 percent of Brazil's natural gas. But Evo's government after three years in power is unreliable, and unpredictable as El Deber says. Even after the rift caused by Evo's very public humiliation .of Brazil and Petrobras during the "nationalization" media theater, Evo has had 3 years to make it right. But through ideological intrasigence, incompetence, and simple idiocity the Morales government has mismanaged its hydrocarbons industry neither able to produce as a "nationalized" industry and uncertain and risky for foreign investment.

Lula's seemingly out of character comments might carry a bit of payback for the May 2006 "nationalization". Or it simply may be frustration at 3 years of trying to work Evo Morales behind the scenes to back off a bit and accept the fact that Bolivia's hydrocarbons industry needs technical know-how and investment from abroad. Evo only seems to have ears for Hugo Chavez, and Lula may have simply given up. And he can afford to. At the rate Petrobras is going it will also be in a position to export gas and oil in quantities rivaling those of Venezuela. Chavez should also be worried.

TV: Burn Notice Season Finale

USA Networks Burn Notice The filmed-in-Miami show had a hell of an ending. One of my favorite shows on TV. Smartly written spy story - with a dose of humor, very well acted by Jeffrey Donovan -fresh off an acclaimed role in Clint Eastwoods "Changeling", uber-hottie Gabrielle Anwar (Scent of a Woman), the one and only Bruce Campbell as the 3 main characters. Throw in the re-occuring characters played by Sharon Gless and Caprica 6 herself, Tricia Hefler blessing us twice a week in cable....

Ultimately what really worked was the resolution of the storyline that has been built up these two seasons. Really good shows like Heroes and Lost can get muddled and complicated - with spy stuff it can get out of hand. The writers of Burn Notice were really smart in making the solution to the Burn Notice question fairly simple. It is an off-the-books government operation that "recruits" the best intelligence operatives by first of all "burning" them and then bringing them into the fold on a limited knowledge basis. So there is a paper trail that says they were kicked out of the CIA or whatever, making everything deniable. And they are indebted to the shadow agency thinking it saved them. And it is easy to go rogue. Of course it was diabolically hard to figure out. And it keeps thB e story human and dependent on the characters. Elegant and not entirely implausible.

Boli Bonus Points: Tricia Hefler....Gabrielle Anwar....and a black Saab 9-3 Turbo convertible as a kick-ass spy mobile!!

Financial Times: Bolivia pays a high price for nationalisation

The financial Times has an article detailing how badly Bolivia's nationalization of the hydrocarbon industry has worked. This on top of the biggest scandal in the history of YPFB that just broke open shows the enormous price paid by the Morales governments ideologically-inspired policies.

Bolivia, the linchpin of gas supplies to the southern half of Latin America, is struggling to secure long-term investment for its hydro­carbons sector amid questions over its reliability as a supplier and uncertainty over demand from export markets.

Evo Morales, the country’s popular leftist president who faces a presidential election in December, travelled to Russia this week to sign an agreement with Gazprom, the state gas monopoly, to develop Bolivia’s gas reserves until 2030.


The government estimates the Gazprom agreement, which includes a joint project with Total of France, will be worth $3bn (€2.3bn, £2bn). It says Venezuela and Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB), Bolivia’s state-owned gas company, will together invest a further $240m.

The fact that Bolivia has to go so far abroad highlights the damage it did by nationalising its energy industry in 2006, driving away technically able international companies with a proven ability to raise funds.

EARLY 80'S CLASSICS

SOMETIMES DEPRESSIVE, SOMEWHAT TRIPPED OUT, GREAT TUNES FROM EARLY 80'S.

Bolivia's Constitution - Referfendum

The Economist gets it:

At heart, the constitutional referendum involves a choice as to whether or not Bolivia should graft on to an imperfect Western liberal democracy a socialist model that owes rather more to the corporatism of Spanish colonial rule (but with Amerindians, rather than conquistadors, in charge) than to Marx. A less confrontational president than Mr Morales might find a more harmonious way to blend the two. As it is, his probable victory risks setting his country on a path of chaotic conflict, government paralysis and continuing economic backwardness.

Rick Warren At Obama Inaguration: Guess Who's Also Mad

Obama's choice of Pastor Rick Warren to lead inovocation has drawn a lot of fire from gay rights groups and liberal democrats.

Looks like a good number of religious conservatives are angry too!

In an interesting twist, plenty of conservatives are mad, not at Obama for inviting Warren, but at Warren for accepting the invitation.

David Brody, a correspondent for TV preacher Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network, reported today that he's been "flooded with emails and most of them absolutely rip Pastor Warren for doing this."

Brody doesn't seem to share their concerns -- he asks, "Why can't a pro-life pastor pray for a pro-choice candidate?" -- but he republished a variety of the angry emails. This one stood out:

"Unless Rick Warren has changed, he is very disappointing in the pro-life cause. Just ask pro-life leaders their opinion. He doesn't like to deal with it at his church. It just seems funny that he is known as 'pro-life' when he largely ignores the subject and teaches others to do the same. I fear God for these 'men of God'. We have lost 50 million babies, and most won't say a word. Reminds me of Nazi Germany or our slavery days. Very few spoke out. It was more comfortable to keep quiet."

:

Given the disconnect b/w some major media and parts of the evangelical community, this controversy might have started at the same time as the gay rights groups.

Its the A word...

So Warren is not only wrong for delivering the invocation for a pro-choice president, Warren is weak on the abortion issue to begin with.

Given this new wrinkle, a cynical-campaign-PR-spinmaster would try to get a lot of ink on this twist to the story. Puts brakes on the well publicized backlash from some Obama supporters. Warren is seen as well-respected religious leaders caught between extremes, Obama looks like roses to moderates

Very Cool Video

Patrick Depallier in Ken Tyrrells unique six wheel Tyrrell P-34 doing a lap at Monaco.

Now For Some Weirdness

The Alternate History Theme Park Where Dinosaurs Fought in the Civil War

LMAO....no comments needed...

Blago Gets Busted! Bigtime...

talk about blatant influence-peddling, bullying critical media, general corruption, ego-centered paranoia!

No its not Chavez, or for that matter business-as-usual politics of many LA countries regardless of ideology.

Its the wacky reign of Gov. Rod Blagojevich in Illinois busted for trying to sell Barack Obama's Senate seat, shaking down the Chicago Tribune, shaking down business and individuals for contributions among other shenanigans. The federal indictment details all this fun, which has shocked even cynical Chicagoans used to outrageous behavior from politicians. Count Blagola is in for it....

Some wags have already said that US Attorney Fitzgerald should be appointed to the Senate - leaving Illinois polls in peace.

EDIT: For anyone not familiar with the Loop area in Chicago, the US District Court in the Dirksen Center where the governor was dragged in, is directly across the street from where the transition is being run...Actually they are 2 of the 3 buildings in the complex known as the Federal Central , designed by Mies Van Der Rohe.
It is this proximity that explains why the national media covered the Courthouse action so quickly, and ran back to get quotes from the President-elect. And the US Attorneys office and detention areas are also there.

Latin American Finance Ministers - Bolivia and Venezuela get trashed

Latin American business magazine America Economia has a recent special rating Latin American finance ministers, particularly how well prepared they are to deal with the current worldwide financial crisis. 140 prominent professional economists were surveyed, asking them to rate the finance ministers performance based on four criteria: macroeconomic stability; pro-competetivenes/pro-growth strategies; leadership within the government as a whole; and projecting confidence to citizens, the business community and investors.

Rated highest were Chile's minister Andrés Velasco, followed by Mexico's Agustín Carstens, Peru's Luis Valdivieso, and Brazil's Guido Mantega. Among individual categories, Guatemala's minister is rated very high (#3) in the leadership category - which focuses on how well the minister leads "in the economic plans of the government" as a whole, and how he is able to work with the "demands of his colleagues" i.e. the ministers of labor, housing, education, health.

Biggest Losers

Bolivia's El Nuevo Dia (reprinted in Petroleumworld) acidly notes that Bolivia's Luis Arce is ranked at the tail end of the survey alongside colleagues from Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina. Coinciding with the countries worst prepared to deal with the current crisis.

Bolivia would probably be rated worse if it weren't for the countries reserves and recent macroeconomic stability. Most Bolivian experts will quickly point out that those are "in spite of Evo", rather than because of Evo. Previous governments fiscal policy choices and macroeconomic policies bear a lot of credit. Gas revenues come largely from investment that Evo has chased away. The pattern continues with Bolivias exports and trade policy, which face an uncertain future due to the Morales government bungling of Andean trade preferences and demoralizing of the export sector. With this kind of incompetence and ideological idiocity from the top, it is hard to see how poor Mr. Arce would make the grade.

President-Elect.... Picking Strong....

From The Economist

. He has embraced his former nemesis by making Hillary Clinton secretary of state. He has outraged the left by keeping Robert Gates at the Pentagon and making James Jones, a former NATO supreme commander who campaigned for John McCain, his national security adviser. He has reassured the markets by putting Tim Geithner in the Treasury and appointing Larry Summers as his White House economics guru. And he has made history by appointing Eric Holder as America’s first black attorney-general. The Justice Department, which once spied on Martin Luther King, will now be in the hands of a child of the civil-rights revolution.

it must be the hangover of 8 years of Bush's power-hoarding White House, and the Republicans embrace of mediocrity. relief to see people with actual brains and skill getting tapped to run things now. And those on the right whining about "socialism" during the campaign, were so way off it is almost funny...

: the imprint Mr Obama is already putting on history is impressive. He has demonstrated that he is self-confident enough to surround himself with big brains and strong personalities. He is also signalling that he intends to govern pragmatically—changing America’s foreign policy by degrees, not precipitously, and focusing his energies on America’s miserable economy.

As for the whining by some netroots/Daily Kos/moveon.org types...get a clue..... Some of the more leftish loudmouths need to figure out that a lot of the rage that ate up a lot of online space was directed at the extraordinarily obnoxious administration, and was not representative of a defined ideological position. Not many people want to resurect the substance or the attitudes of 70's or 80's east-coast liberalism. Our President-elect understands that perfectly.

Drug Wars: Erradication in Colombia and Bolivia

From the New York Times article on the failure of Plan Colombia's goals of erradication.

Despite record aerial eradication, coca cultivation rose by 15 percent during Plan Colombia’s 2000-2006 run, the report said.

It added that cocaine production rose by less — 4 percent — because eradication efforts forced growers to disperse their crops more widely, contributing to lower yields.

In Bolivia, the issue of erradication of coca and fighting trafficking has come up again due to Evo expelling the DEA, as the Economist points out:

The government points out that it is wiping out more than 5,000 hectares (12,000 acres) of coca this year (though the UN reckons Bolivia’s cocaine output rose 11% in 2007)..

Comparing Apples And Oranges


Both countries erradication efforts are often compared by analysts. The Bolivian government itself often cites its "successes" erradicating illegal coca and cocaine production, in contrast to the expensive and allegedly unworkable efforts in Colombia.

In some ways this is comparing apples and oranges. Most of the illegal coca production in Bolivia is centered in one clearly delimited area in Chapare. The area is controlled by growers, organized in unions that happen to be the core of the support of the governing party. You have the curious case of the president as commander in chief of the armed forces (including anti-narcotics units) and at the same time being the elected leader of of the coca growers unions. There has long been a sort of Mexican-standoff in the area b/w authorities and cocaleros, which at least on the surface it looked like coca leaf production was contained and not expanding back to pre-2002 levels.

Colombia on the other hand has coca growing areas - some enormous - spread out over the country. Given the size and topography it is easy for farmers whose crops have been destroyed to literally "move down the road" and replant elsewhere.

Complicating the entire situation is that growing areas are disputed by tens of thousands of guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug smuggling bands. In one sense creating "mini-conflicts" within the larger war in Colombia, over growing/production areas and key smuggling routes. Rents collected finance all the warring parties. The FARC's continued existence owes a lot to taxing coca and cocaine and direct involvement, while the paramilitaries are largely product of drug smuggler money.

It is using these funds that the FARC is able to mount its war against the Colombian state. And this larger conflict acts as a sort of buffer - by denying control of territory and diverting resources - insulating many of the actors involved in the drug trade from central authority. If the government has to focus on FARC guerillas attacking authorities in a given area, drug dealers who go out of their way to avoid authority often can go about their business - more so if they kill guerillas and anyone connected to them on their own dime.

Growing Vs. Production

Given these differences it is hardly surprising that coca production has increased in Colombia and remained more or less constant in Bolivia.

But, if we measure actual cocaine production, it appears that the increases in coca leaf acreage have not yielded a corresponding increase in cocaine production in Colombia. In other words the growers are forced to grow more to provide the labs with raw materials.

On the other hand in Bolivia, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that under this regime, it has become much easier for coca to reach cocaine producers. The cocaleros have become more efficient. Since there is no comparable 'existential' threat to this Bolivian government as the FARC presents in Colombia, there is much less excuse for the Morales government. Or at minimum it shows just how hard it is to show real results in erradicating coca - and cocaine production.

Election 2008: PRESIDENT OBAMA....

Great speech.....

Grant Park in Chicago...David Gergen & Carl Bernstein both made comments on the symbolism.. Site of infamous riots in 1968 Democratic convention...riot in the sense that Richard Daley Sr.'s cops ran amuck beating up protesters. National TV showed hizzoner melting down, while chaos reigns on convention floor in reaction to Grant Park. 40 yrs later it is Richie Daley Jr.'s Chicago that is the site of a historic celebration.

Election 2008: Done Deal Baby!!!!

CNN CALLS IT FOR BARACK OBAMA.................Virginia goes Democrat!!!!

THANK GOD! GOD BLESS AMERICA....

A good percentage of the American electorate does right by all of us...

Election 2008: 10 pm eastern.

New Mexico for Barack...Iowa for Barack...

CNN Cuts to McCain/Palin HQ in Arizona...weird scene: Faithful waving red flags and US flags..looks like Nixon visiting China.....Hank Williams Jr sings one of his songs about how he used to booze it up. I think Hank Sr. would be more appropriate for the event...."I'm so lonesome I could cry"....LOL.....

Election 2008: Ohio & PA....W00t!!

F-Joe The Plumber

CNN projecting Barack Obama wins key states of Ohio and Pennsilvania. Taking the blue collar vote....where McCain concentrated his efforts.......

COME ON FLORIDA....

Christopher Buckley, William F. Buckley's son endorses Obama

Author Christopher Buckley son of the "patron saint of conservatism" William F. Buckley, a self-described "small-government conservative" and "libertarian" on other issues has endorsed Barack Obama for president. The firestorm has caused him to resign from National Review the magazine WFB founded, which is often credited with helping launch the modern American conservative movement.

Buckley describes Obama as a "first-class temperament and a first-class intellect"

on John McCain:

John McCain has changed. He said, famously, apropos the Republican debacle post-1994, “We came to Washington to change it, and Washington changed us.” This campaign has changed John McCain. It has made him inauthentic. A once-first class temperament has become irascible and snarly; his positions change, and lack coherence; he makes unrealistic promises, such as balancing the federal budget “by the end of my first term.” Who, really, believes that? Then there was the self-dramatizing and feckless suspension of his campaign over the financial crisis. His ninth-inning attack ads are mean-spirited and pointless. And finally, not to belabor it, there was the Palin nomination. What on earth can he have been thinking?

On Obama:

Obama has in him—I think, despite his sometimes airy-fairy “We are the people we have been waiting for” silly rhetoric—the potential to be a good, perhaps even great leader. He is, it seems clear enough, what the historical moment seems to be calling for.

So, I wish him all the best. We are all in this together. Necessity is the mother of bipartisanship. And so, for the first time in my life, I’ll be pulling the Democratic lever in November. As the saying goes, God save the United States of America.

Economic Mess - Bailout Nothing New Really

For a historical and global perspective of what the US Govts bailout/rescue plan Britain's The Economist

[H]istory teaches an important lesson: that big banking crises are ultimately solved by throwing in large dollops of public money, and that early and decisive government action, whether to recapitalise banks or take on troubled debts, can minimise the cost to the taxpayer and the damage to the economy. For example, Sweden quickly took over its failed banks after a property bust in the early 1990s and recovered relatively fast. By contrast, Japan took a decade to recover from a financial bust that ultimately cost its taxpayers a sum equivalent to 24% of GDP.

All in all,[B] America’s government has put some 7% of GDP on the line, a vast amount of money but well below the 16% of GDP that the average systemic banking crisis (if there is such a thing) ultimately cost[/B]s the public purse. Just how America’s proposed Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) will work is still unclear. The Treasury plans to buy huge amounts of distressed debt using a reverse auction process, where banks offer to sell at a price and the government buys from the lowest price upwards. The complexities of thousands of different mortgage-backed assets will make this hard. If direct bank recapitalisation is still needed, the Treasury can do that too. [B]The main point is that America is prepared to act, and act decisively.

Basically, the "bailout" is nothing that hasn't been done elsewhere, and the consequences for doing nothing could have been devastating.

Seen this shit happen in the 3rd World with much, much smaller and less complex economies, but the fundamentals are the same.......

one scenario, similar to what happened in East Asia, Russia in the late 90's, which dominoed into South America...

The trouble is that because of its large current-account deficit America is heavily reliant on foreign funding. It has the advantage that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and as the financial turmoil has spread the dollar has strengthened. But today’s crisis is also testing many of the foundations on which foreigners’ faith in the dollar is based, such as limited government and stable capital markets. If foreigners ever flee the dollar, America will face the twin nightmares that haunt emerging countries in a financial collapse: simultaneous banking and currency crises. America’s debts, unlike those in many emerging economies, are denominated in its own currency, but a collapse of the dollar would still be a catastrophe.

Are Republicans Getting Dumber???

....Or at least more anti-intellectual as David Brooks argues in the NYT.

[O]ver the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare. Democrats kept nominating coastal pointy-heads like Michael Dukakis so Republicans attacked coastal pointy-heads.

What had been a disdain for liberal intellectuals slipped into a disdain for the educated class as a whole.

Republicans developed their own leadership style. If Democratic leaders prized deliberation and self-examination, then Republicans would govern from the gut.

Ultimately, this has meant that the more educated sections of society have been staying away from the Republican party:

The political effects of this trend have been obvious. Republicans have alienated the highly educated regions — Silicon Valley, northern Virginia, the suburbs outside of New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Raleigh-Durham. The West Coast and the Northeast are mostly gone.

Questioning Colombian Hostage Liberation.....As if...

Talk about trying very hard to rain on a parade..

Some on the very goofy left - including the usual Chavistas and FARC fellow travellers, are now claiming that the helicopter rescue of hostages was in fact "staged", that a ransom was paid...

it's clear that the official story has begun to unravel and will require some serious PR airbrushing to keep from falling apart altogether. It's looking more and more like the whole farce was concocted by Uribe

The "evidence"??? Well mostly FARC's own claim that Cesar (hostage "security" guy) was bribed with $20 million bucks. Not quite the Secretariat getting millions for their 4 most valuable and high profile hostage.

YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING ME....

EVEN IF..Cesar was FLIPPED for $20,000,000.00 chalk one up for Colombian intelligence. For the price of roughly 3 military choppers, military intelligence was able to reach the very security chief for the FARC's high-value hostages and get him to turn on his comrades. Not to mention get him to go to the landing zone with the hostages, surrounded by literally hundreds of men who would kill him and the captives without hesitation should news of his defection leak out.
that is...unless the Colombians also bribed just about every FARC fighter in the immediate vicinity of the pickup point.

At the very least there were a heck of a lot of fooled FARC fighters around that helicopter.

So basically the spin from these idiots at best shows that Colombia's intelligence and special operations personel penetrated a notoriously tight terrorist organization and bribed a top operative to betray the organization and release its most valuable and protected hostages. And mounted a succesful rescue mission that publically humiliated the terrorists.

Seems like a bigtime success..

Some people are just sore losers.

Bolivian Oil & Gas Companies / Professionals migrating to Peru

The Morales governments nationalization process - rather a reversion to majority government control of oil and gas companies has resulted in a precipitous drop in investment and production in Bolivia's once booming gas sector. Neighbor Peru has been agressively courting international partners to boost its own fledgling gas sector based around the Camisea gas fields. With much less than half of Bolivia's gas reserves it has attracted US $3 billion dollars in investment for exploration and production in hydrocarbons a staggering 10 times the $300 million for Bolivia this year.

And another effect has been a brain drain of Bolivian oil and gas professionals, skilled workers and managers to Peru where their expertise is valued highly. La Razon quotes one expert who estimates 800 top industry professionals moving to Peru to take on top managerial and technical positions. In addition, other workers have gone to Peru as employees of multinationals like Respsol YPF.

If that were not enough, several of the most experienced Bolivian companies, like Serpetbol which has have taken up shop in Peru's gas fields. That company billed nearly $60 million dollars in Peru, and employs 1000 workers.

What this exodus of experienced professionals and companies shows is Bolivia's current governments complete mismanagement of its oil and gas sector. Chasing away investors, hurts the entire national hydrocarbons industry, which includes the valuable human capital and 100 percent Bolivian service companies.
All the more glaring due to the enormous boom in price, which allows Peru to pulls in Billions of investments - as well as Bolivian expertise for much less gas than Bolivia has. Bolivia should have billions in investments, a vibrant national industry, operting at higher production levels. After nearly 3 years of Evo, it can not even comply with its Argentina and Brazil contracts. Promised Venezuelan/Russian/Iranian "investments" are more media events. I would be there are more Bolivians working in exploration in Peru, than there are Venezuelans doing the same in Bolivia.

DAYUM!!!: BETANCOURT ....US HOSTAGES FREED

way hot off the presses. The FARC's biggest captives were apparently freed in one major millitary operation - if this is for real, it will go on record as being one of the most impressive hostage rescues in history. These people were seized and held by some of the most ruthless, sophisticated, well-armed, kidnappers ever seen.

this will be a deathblow to the FARC. They just lost their best negotiating chips.

By FRANK BAJAK, Associated Press Writer 17 minutes ago

BOGOTA, Colombia - Colombian spies tricked leftist rebels into handing over kidnapped presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and three U.S. military contractors Wednesday in a daring helicopter rescue so successful that not a single shot was fired.
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Betancourt, who was seized on the campaign trail six long years ago, appeared thin but healthy as she strode down the stairs of a military plane and held her mother in a long embrace.

"Thank you for your impeccable operation," she told top military commanders. "The operation was perfect."

Eleven Colombian police and soldiers were also freed in the rescue, the most serious blow ever dealt to the 44-year-old Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, which considered the four hostages their most valuable bargaining chips. The FARC is already reeling from the deaths of key commanders a

nd the loss of much of the territory it once held.

Cuba: Has Castro Educated His People??

Education and The Cuban Revolution, educational paradise? Fraud?

First of all, well before Castro, Cuba had one of the most educated populations in Latin America at all levels, with literacy numbers at 1st world levels.

So Castro was hardly starting w/a population of illiterates. And thanks to his exiling a sizeable percentage of the population he has had a smaller number of kids to educate, (think in terms of freeing up resources - #'s of classrooms, teachers, budget per pupil)

That being said, what credit he is due, is in improving the education of the small percentage of the rural and urban poor who traditionally had little access to education.
And in a larger sense, increasing the quality and intensity of the education available to most Cubans. Ideology aside, there is something worth studying about how Cuba has managed to produce the numbers of university grads in technical fields it has produced. Students whose preparation in key subjects like math, started well in elementary schools. Their soviet-style sports and arts programs are first rate: Miami's Junior College chess team is tops in the US thanks to its Cubans. Listen to how well spoken "El Duque" Hernandez or other Cuban pro's are compared to other latin ballplayers.
And in general, their primary and secondary schools seem to do a pretty good job. I talk a lot to everyday Cubans educated on the island, some very recent arrivals. From kids to professors, they all come out with a high level of education, extremely well spoken, impecable Spanish grammar.

Then again all these achievements are wasted, due to the inherently irrational and perverse nature of Socialism/Collectivism. Castro educates his population, produces a huge number of professionals in valuable professions. But then your system underpays this valuable human capital. To the point where women doctors would rather prostitute themselves, engineers drive cabs, and technicians take a flimsy raft to Florida. All this human capital, leaves or produces little on the island. Joins the millions of Cubans - valuable human capital - who have added Billions to the US economy.

That is called stupid.

Nicaragua: Ortega Trashes Opposition Parties

Ortega has succesfully managed to ban the Renovacion Sandinista party and the traditional Conservative Party. This is such a blatantly politicized move that even hard left apologists like Noam Chomsky and Eduardo Galeano have signed a petition asking for a political solution.

Ortega is acting like the other Chavista morons (i.e. Evo), bending procedural rules to the max in order to centralize power in himself, and trashing independent institutions and procedures. As Marcela Sanchez quoting Mundo Jarquin: , "Ortega is manipulating electoral and judicial powers to establish "an institutional dictatorship,"

The radical left does not believe in concepts like separation of powers, checks and balances and decentralized decision-making, in other words things that make for sucessfull representative democracy.

On a separate note. How come a lot of press do not refer to Ortega as a former dictator? Dude was a Communist thug, who ran a pro-Soviet regime during the Cold War. No one elected him as part of that "junta", and he "won" an election, while his Marxist-Leninist party exercised dictatorial control over all branches of government, media, the economy, the army, police, all the way down to neighborhood thugs and snitches who controlled the issuance of basic food rations.

Standard issue corruption is actually an improvement.



Tip Of The Hat to
Boz

USA Network

Quality TV is not an oxymoron.

Got done watching back to back episodes of Law and Order Criminal Intent, and In Plain Sight. Talk about two hours of solid drama. Am already addicted to Burn Notice and throw in Monk, and USA Network have got some winners.

Boli For Barack

First time i saw the guy was at a small event in Chicago when he was running against Bobby Rush. Since then followed him in IL State Senate and his election campaign for Senate in 04.

Veteran of Chicago Dem politics, staying on message while being tough. That is grad school in hardball politics for anyone.

Illinois State Senate has Chicago hardball players, Suburban Reps, Farmbelt & rural reps, Small City machine politicians, just a mishmash of different interests of a big state. Obama did a good job of getting it done for his district, and a reputation for being practical reaching across the aisle to people not only from other parties, but crossing the Chicago/Downstate divide. And he was known as a serious student of policy.

In his run for Senate, he won a very tough Democratic primary, getting votes from Downstate Illinois small town and rural voters - in areas that are close to the Mason Dixie line. He did very well in the central farm area that is midwestern as can be. He also did really well in the Conservative Western suburbs.

Basically, he is a really charismatic guy, who has a good feel on the American public, in seeing the similarities that cut across race, regional, and class - despite the problems in his campaign recently.

He is smart as hell, and can look at issues from different perspectives. But he is absolutely not a wimp, won't give up anything without getting some payback. that is Chicago-style.

He is not a knee-jerk liberal. You don't survive in Chicago and Illinois without dealing w Fortune 500 CEO's and small business alike.

He is as well prepared to actually lead and motivate Americans as anyone I have seen. And he surrounds (and will surround)himself w/both fresh faces and those w/experience. And that is the main point, he can put in place the people who can effect "change". At the very least change from the legions of Republican hacks that enabled Bush as he invaded the wrong country and did nothing while the gulf coast and New Orleans swamped. McCain is going to end up relying on these characters. No thanks

Tip Of The Hat to

EVO-WATCH: Evo Makes Really, Really Stupid Statements Part XVIIXIII

Evo Goes To UN Forum And Shows The World His Genius


Like an indigenous Kruschev, Evo, at the UN Indigenous People's Forum gave his "10 Commandments" For Saving The World."

#1 With A Bullet is "finishing and erradicating the capitalist model"

Luddite? Neo-Communistic? Definitively plain idiotic in a post-Berlin Wall world where Vietnam, China, and India are feeding hundreds of millions of people much better thanks to making peace with market forces. Morales on the other hand, has tried implementing his "model" by chasing away foreign investment and his recent ban of exports of vegetable oil.

" Si se quiere salvar el planeta, hay que terminar y erradicar al modelo capitalista y lograr que el norte pague la deuda ecológica en vez de que los países del sur y de todo el mundo paguen la deuda externa".